Studying and predicting the performance quality of power supply systems of water sports buildings subjected to various external effects

Abstract

The performance quality indicators of the power supply systems of buildings characterize how efficiently various kinds of energy resources are used; in turn, their efficient use implies expenditure of the minimal amount of energy to cover the necessary level of energy consumption corresponding to the design parameters, technological regulations, or process charts. Attempts to predict variations of, e.g., the level of heat consumption through the use of specific indicators of the building's heat load under the conditions of partial replacement of equipment encounter difficulties and sometimes are not amenable to calculation. Attempts to study the performance quality of power supply systems and predict the consumption of energy resources using commonly adopted models entail the need to introduce factors that make the results less accurate. In this study, the following tasks were solved in a consistent manner for constructing the function used to predict the performance quality of the power supply systems of buildings with accuracy sufficient for analyzing the changes occurring under various external effects: determining the necessary and sufficient number of observations to enable making a forecast of heat consumption in buildings for water sports with accuracy 5 > 95% and confidence probability у > 50%; identifying the factors affecting the consumption of power and heat, and categorizing them according to the specifics of the power and heat supply system; and estimating the accuracy and validity of the forecasting model for the water sports building being analyzed. According to the six-factor forecast, the calculated error was estimated at 7.43%, which is a quite low value for such models. The proposed analytical approach to construction of energy consumption functions of buildings simplifies the calculation and makes it possible to use the data available at each facility. In addition, it allows one to estimate the accuracy and confidence level of the possibility to reduce the consumption of energy resources and creates prerequisites for substantiating the efficiency of introducing energy saving measures in the engineering systems of the existing facilities. The drawback of the considered method lies in the complexity of interpreting the obtained coefficients at the significant factors from the viewpoint of electrical and thermal processes. On the other hand, its advantage lies in the possibility of using only the available primary initial data while reaching the required calculation accuracy.