Assessing the Potential of Solar and Wind Energy in Tajikistan Using a Multi-criteria Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24160/1993-6982-2024-6-55-67Keywords:
solar energy potential, wind energy potential, multi-criteria approach, energy sector of Tajikistan, renewable energy sourcesAbstract
The purpose of the study is to determine the technical and economic potential of solar and wind energy in Tajikistan using a multi-criteria approach aimed at development of renewable energy sources (RES) in the region to improve the energy security and support sustainable development of the country's energy sector.
The study was carried out using a multi-criteria approach based on analyzing the density of resources, land use types, terrain characteristics, as well as environmental and technical parameters. Updated data on the solar and wind resources, and a renewable energy zone methodology are presented, which makes it possible to take into account various factors in assessing the energy potential.
The study has shown that the technical potential of RES in Tajikistan makes 646 850 MW for solar energy and 15 557 MW for wind energy, while the economic potential makes 369 600 MW and 4485 MW, respectively. Key areas for the development of renewable energy sources have been identified, which allows efforts to be directed toward their development.
The results of the study can be used to formulate the energy strategy and policy, especially in the context of the development of small solar and wind power plants in Tajikistan, and play an important role for infrastructure planning and decision-making in the field of sustainable development of the country's energy sector.
The multi-criteria analysis has revealed a significant potential of renewable energy sources in Tajikistan, which contributes to the development of the RES and improvement of the country’s energy security. The study results contribute to clarifying and updating data on the potential of RES in the region, which is important for strategic planning and implementation of projects on the use of renewable energy sources.
References
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Для цитирования: Кудусов М.А., Мадвалиев У., Бахромзод Р., Мукумов А.Р. Оценка потенциала солнечной и ветровой энергии в Таджикистане с использованием мультикритериального метода // Вестник МЭИ. 2024. № 6. С. 55—67. DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2024-6-55-67
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Конфликт интересов: авторы заявляют об отсутствии конфликта интересов
#
1. Abdulov D.N., Safarova M.B., Makhmudov B.N. Toplivno-energeticheskiy Kompleks Respubliki Tadzhikistan kak Faktor Razvitiya Ekonomiki. Molodoy uchenyy. 2016;18:211—216. (in Russian).
2. Ye Khtut M'yat, Shvedov G.V. Sravnitel'nyy Analiz Grafikov Elektricheskoy Nagruzki Nekotorykh Stran Evropy i Azii. Ch. 2. Sutochnye Grafiki. Vestnik MEI. 2023;4:50—61. (in Russian).
3. Petrov G.N. i dr. Obshchaya Otsenka Situatsii v Energetike v Mire i Tadzhikistane. Izvestiya Akademii Nauk Respubliki Tadzhikistan. 2009;2:101—111. (in Russian).
4. Chorshanbiev S.R. Povyshenie Effektivnosti Funktsionirovaniya Elektricheskikh Setey s Raspredelennoy Solnechnoy Generatsiey za Schet Snizheniya Tekhnicheskikh Poter' Elektroenergii (na Primere Respubliki Tadzhikistan). M.: Iz-vo MEI, 2019. (in Russian).
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6. UNDP. Renewable Energy Snapshots. UNDP in Europe and Central Asia [Elektron. Resurs] https://www.undp.org/eurasia/publications/renewable-energy-snapshots (Data Obrashcheniya 21.04.2024).
7. Karimov K.S. e. a. Effective Management of Combined Renewable Energy Resources in Tajikistan. Sci. of the Total Environment. 2013;461:835—838.
8. Akash J., Kudusov M., Akanksha J., Pramod J., Madvaliev U. A Multicriteria Approach to Identifying and Developing Renewable Energy Zones in Tajikistan. Appl. Solar Energy. 2023;59(2):176—188.
9. Lee N., Flores-Espino F., Hurlbut D.J. Renewable Energy Zone (Rez) Transmission Planning Process: a Guidebook for Practitioners. Golden: National Renewable Energy Lab., 2017.
10. Tahri M., Hakdaoui M., Maanan M. The Evaluation of Solar Farm Locations Applying Geographic Information System and Multi-criteria Decision-making Methods: Case Study in Southern Morocco. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2015;51:1354—1362.
11. Yushchenko A. e. a. GIS-based Assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Generation Potential in West Africa. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2018;81:2088—2103.
12. Ghasemi G. e. a. Theoretical and Technical Potential Evaluation of Solar Power Generation in Iran. Renewable Energy. 2019;138:1250—1261.
13. Sánchez-Lozano J.M. e. a. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Methods for the Evaluation of Solar Farms Locations: Case Study in South-eastern Spain. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2013;24:544—556.
14. Ghasempour R. e. a. Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Approach for Selecting Solar Plants Site and Technology: a Review. Intern. J. Renewable Energy Development. 2019;8(1):15—25.
15. Stökler S., Schillings C., Kraas B. Solar Resource Assessment Study for Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2016;58:1184—1188.
16. Brent A. C. e. a. Solar Atlas of New Zealand from satellite imagery. J. Royal Soc. New Zealand. 2020;50(4):572—583.
17. Global Solar Atlas 2.0: Validation Rep. (English). Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group [Elektron. Resurs] http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/507341592893487792/Global-Solar-Atlas-2-0-Validation-Report (Data Obrashcheniya 21. 04. 2024).
18. Perez R., Cebecauer T., Šúri M. Chapter 2 — Semi-empirical Satellite Models. Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment. N.-Y.: Academic Press, 2013:21—48.
19. Palmer D. e. a. Satellite or Ground-based Measurements for Production of Site Specific Hourly Irradiance Data: which is Most Accurate and Where? Solar Energy. 2018;165:240—255.
20. Global Solar Atlas [Elektron. Resurs] https://globalsolaratlas.info/ (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
21. Global Wind Atlas [Elektron. Resurs] https://globalwindatlas.info/ (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
22. Davis N.N. e. a. The Global Wind Atlas: A High-resolution Dataset of Climatologies and Associated Web-based Application. Bulletin American Meteorological Soc. 2023;104(8):E1507—E1525.
23. Petersen E.L. In search of the wind energy potential. J. Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2017;9(5):1—13.
24. Bandoc G. e. a. Spatial Assessment of Wind Power Potential at Global Scale. A Geographical Approach. J. Cleaner Production. 2018;200:1065—1086.
25. El-Bshah A. e. a. Resource Assessment of Wind Energy Potential of Mokha in Yemen with Weibull Speed. Computers, Materials & Continua. 2021;69(1):1123—1140.
26. Protected Planet [Elektron. Resurs] https://www.protectedplanet.net/country/TJK (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
27. Bingham H.C. e. a. Sixty Years of Tracking Conservation Progress Using the World Database on Protected Areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2019;3(5):737—743.
28. ArcGIS Online [Elektron. Resurs] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?layers=d6642f8a4f6d4685a24ae2dc0c73d4ac (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
29. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space [Elektron. Resurs] https://www.glims.org/ (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
30. Raup B. e. a. The GLIMS Geospatial Glacier Database: a New Tool for Studying Glacier Change. Global and Planetary Change. 2007;56(1—2):101—110.
31. Johnston K. e. a. Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst. Redlands: Esri Press, 2001.
32. Zeiler M. Modeling Our World: the ESRI Guide to Geodatabase Design. Redlands: Esri Press, 1999.
33. Tegou L., Polatidis H., Haralambopoulos D. Environmental Management Framework for wind Farm Siting: Methodology and Case Study. J. Environmental Management, 2010;91(11):2134—2147.
34. Sánchez-Lozano J. e. a. GIS-based Photovoltaic Solar Farms Site Selection Using ELECTRE-TRI: Evaluating the Case for Torre Pacheco, Murcia, Southeast of Spain. Renewable Energy. 2014;66:478—494.
35. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission [Elektron. Resurs] https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/download/ (Data Obrashcheniya 26.04.2024).
36. Yang L., Meng X., Zhang X. SRTM DEM and Its Application Advances. Intern. J. Remote Sensing. 2011;32(14):3875—3896.
37. Jarvis A. e. a. Practical Use of SRTM Data in the Tropics: Comparisons with Digital Elevation Models Generated Cartographic Data. Cali-Palmira: Centro Inter. de Agricultura Tropical, 2004.
38. Perminov E.M. K Voprosu O Vetroenergetike: Istoriya, Sostoyanie, Perspektivy. Vestnik MEI. 2020;5:11—26. (in Russian)
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For citation: Kudusov M.A., Madvaliev U., Bakhromzod R., Mukumov A.R. Assessing the Potential of Solar and Wind Energy in Tajikistan Using a Multi-criteria Method. Bulletin of MPEI. 2024;6:55—67. (in Russian). DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2024-6-55-67
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Conflict of interests: the authors declare no conflict of interest
2. Йе Хтут Мьят, Шведов Г.В. Сравнительный анализ графиков электрической нагрузки некоторых стран Европы и Азии. Ч. 2. Суточные графики // Вестник МЭИ. 2023. № 4. С. 50—61.
3. Петров Г.Н. и др. Общая оценка ситуации в энергетике в мире и Таджикистане // Известия Академии наук Республики Таджикистан. 2009. № 2. С. 101—111.
4. Чоршанбиев С.Р. Повышение эффективности функционирования электрических сетей с распределенной солнечной генерацией за счет снижения технических потерь электроэнергии (на примере Республики Таджикистан). М.: Из-во МЭИ, 2019.
5. Киргизов А.К. Развитие и оптимизация режимов электроэнергетической системы с распределенными возобновляемыми источниками энергии методами искусственного интеллекта (на примере Республики Таджикистан): дис. … канд. техн. наук. Новосибирск: НГТУ, 2017.
6. UNDP. Renewable Energy Snapshots. UNDP in Europe and Central Asia [Электрон. ресурс] https://www.undp.org/eurasia/publications/renewable-energy-snapshots (дата обращения 21.04.2024).
7. Karimov K.S. e. a. Effective Management of Combined Renewable Energy Resources in Tajikistan // Sci. of the Total Environment. 2013. V. 461. Pp. 835—838.
8. Akash J., Kudusov M., Akanksha J., Pramod J., Madvaliev U. A Multicriteria Approach to Identifying and Developing Renewable Energy Zones in Tajikistan // Appl. Solar Energy. 2023. V. 59(2). Pp. 176—188.
9. Lee N., Flores-Espino F., Hurlbut D.J. Renewable Energy Zone (Rez) Transmission Planning Process: a Guidebook for Practitioners. Golden: National Renewable Energy Lab., 2017.
10. Tahri M., Hakdaoui M., Maanan M. The Evaluation of Solar Farm Locations Applying Geographic Information System and Multi-criteria Decision-making Methods: Case Study in Southern Morocco // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2015. V. 51. Pp. 1354—1362.
11. Yushchenko A. e. a. GIS-based Assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Generation Potential in West Africa // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2018. V. 81. Pp. 2088—2103.
12. Ghasemi G. e. a. Theoretical and Technical Potential Evaluation of Solar Power Generation in Iran // Renewable Energy. 2019. V. 138. Pp. 1250—1261.
13. Sánchez-Lozano J.M. e. a. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Methods for the Evaluation of Solar Farms Locations: Case Study in South-eastern Spain // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2013. V. 24. Pp. 544—556.
14. Ghasempour R. e. a. Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Approach for Selecting Solar Plants Site and Technology: a Review // Intern. J. Renewable Energy Development. 2019. V. 8(1). Pp. 15—25.
15. Stökler S., Schillings C., Kraas B. Solar Resource Assessment Study for Pakistan // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rev. 2016. V. 58. Pp. 1184—1188.
16. Brent A. C. e. a. Solar Atlas of New Zealand from satellite imagery // J. Royal Soc. New Zealand. 2020. V. 50(4). Pp. 572—583.
17. Global Solar Atlas 2.0: Validation Rep. (English). Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group [Электрон. ресурс] http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/507341592893487792/Global-Solar-Atlas-2-0-Validation-Report (дата обращения 21. 04. 2024).
18. Perez R., Cebecauer T., Šúri M. Chapter 2 — Semi-empirical Satellite Models // Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment. N.-Y.: Academic Press, 2013. Pp. 21—48.
19. Palmer D. e. a. Satellite or Ground-based Measurements for Production of Site Specific Hourly Irradiance Data: which is Most Accurate and Where? // Solar Energy. 2018. V. 165. Pp. 240—255.
20. Global Solar Atlas [Электрон. ресурс] https://globalsolaratlas.info/ (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
21. Global Wind Atlas [Электрон. ресурс] https://globalwindatlas.info/ (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
22. Davis N.N. e. a. The Global Wind Atlas: A High-resolution Dataset of Climatologies and Associated Web-based Application // Bulletin American Meteorological Soc. 2023. V. 104(8). Pp. E1507—E1525.
23. Petersen E.L. In search of the wind energy potential // J. Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2017. V. 9(5). Pp. 1—13.
24. Bandoc G. e. a. Spatial Assessment of Wind Power Potential at Global Scale. A Geographical Approach // J. Cleaner Production. 2018. V. 200. Pp. 1065—1086.
25. El-Bshah A. e. a. Resource Assessment of Wind Energy Potential of Mokha in Yemen with Weibull Speed // Computers, Materials & Continua. 2021. V. 69(1). Pp. 1123—1140.
26. Protected Planet [Электрон. ресурс] https://www.protectedplanet.net/country/TJK (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
27. Bingham H.C. e. a. Sixty Years of Tracking Conservation Progress Using the World Database on Protected Areas // Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2019. V. 3(5). Pp. 737—743.
28. ArcGIS Online [Электрон. ресурс] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?layers=d6642f8a4f6d4685a24ae2dc0c73d4ac (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
29. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space [Электрон. ресурс] https://www.glims.org/ (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
30. Raup B. e. a. The GLIMS Geospatial Glacier Database: a New Tool for Studying Glacier Change // Global and Planetary Change. 2007. V. 56(1—2). Pp. 101—110.
31. Johnston K. e. a. Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst. Redlands: Esri Press, 2001.
32. Zeiler M. Modeling Our World: the ESRI Guide to Geodatabase Design. Redlands: Esri Press, 1999.
33. Tegou L., Polatidis H., Haralambopoulos D. Environmental Management Framework for wind Farm Siting: Methodology and Case Study // J. Environmental Management, 2010. V. 91(11). Pp. 2134—2147.
34. Sánchez-Lozano J. e. a. GIS-based Photovoltaic Solar Farms Site Selection Using ELECTRE-TRI: Evaluating the Case for Torre Pacheco, Murcia, Southeast of Spain // Renewable Energy. 2014. No. 66. Pp. 478—494.
35. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission [Электрон. ресурс] https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/download/ (дата обращения 26.04.2024).
36. Yang L., Meng X., Zhang X. SRTM DEM and Its Application Advances // Intern. J. Remote Sensing. 2011. V. 32(14). Pp. 3875—3896.
37. Jarvis A. e. a. Practical Use of SRTM Data in the Tropics: Comparisons with Digital Elevation Models Generated Cartographic Data. Cali-Palmira: Centro Inter. de Agricultura Tropical, 2004.
38. Перминов Э.М. К вопросу о ветроэнергетике: история, состояние, перспективы // Вестник МЭИ. 2020. № 5. С. 11—26.
---
Для цитирования: Кудусов М.А., Мадвалиев У., Бахромзод Р., Мукумов А.Р. Оценка потенциала солнечной и ветровой энергии в Таджикистане с использованием мультикритериального метода // Вестник МЭИ. 2024. № 6. С. 55—67. DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2024-6-55-67
---
Конфликт интересов: авторы заявляют об отсутствии конфликта интересов
#
1. Abdulov D.N., Safarova M.B., Makhmudov B.N. Toplivno-energeticheskiy Kompleks Respubliki Tadzhikistan kak Faktor Razvitiya Ekonomiki. Molodoy uchenyy. 2016;18:211—216. (in Russian).
2. Ye Khtut M'yat, Shvedov G.V. Sravnitel'nyy Analiz Grafikov Elektricheskoy Nagruzki Nekotorykh Stran Evropy i Azii. Ch. 2. Sutochnye Grafiki. Vestnik MEI. 2023;4:50—61. (in Russian).
3. Petrov G.N. i dr. Obshchaya Otsenka Situatsii v Energetike v Mire i Tadzhikistane. Izvestiya Akademii Nauk Respubliki Tadzhikistan. 2009;2:101—111. (in Russian).
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For citation: Kudusov M.A., Madvaliev U., Bakhromzod R., Mukumov A.R. Assessing the Potential of Solar and Wind Energy in Tajikistan Using a Multi-criteria Method. Bulletin of MPEI. 2024;6:55—67. (in Russian). DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2024-6-55-67
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Conflict of interests: the authors declare no conflict of interest
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Published
2024-09-04
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Energy Systems and Complexes (2.4.5)
