Modeling the Power Supply System of Mobile Residential Buildings (Yurts) in Mongolia for Calculating Its Reliability Indicators

Abstract

In Mongolia, yurt households constitute a significant share of electricity consumers and are characterized by different power supply conditions, ranging from autonomous systems for nomadic households to centralized power supply for urban ger districts and remote rural consumers. The purpose of the study is to develop a model of a power supply system for a mobile residential house (yurt), intended for calculating reliability indicators and assessing the consequences of power supply interruptions. The study systematizes three typical groups of yurt households, proposes structural configurations of the “source–network–consumer” system, and develops a mathematical description of the reliability of its main subsystems, taking into account failures, restoration processes, and operating constraints. The availability factor and expected energy not supplied are adopted as the calculated reliability indicators. The model has been verified by comparing analytical calculations with the results of Monte Carlo simulation in the MATLAB software environment. The obtained results make it possible to identify the dominant factors degrading power supply reliability for different groups of yurt households and to assess their impact on the availability factor and expected energy not supplied. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the developed model for quantitatively assessing the power supply reliability for yurt households in Mongolia and for substantiating measures aimed at improving it.